Virtues Of Positive Thinking

Let me first say this is totally copied from a blog report I get weekly.  I have contacted the source and have asked to be able to link this directly to my blog and have not heard back yet. 

The reason I am posting this here is that the views and research that is being done here mirrors my beliefs and is very well stated.  I did not want to take credit for it directly.

Signs of positive growth are springing up all around us.  The only fear we are experiencing is being put there by our political representatives. 

Read this and enjoy.

Virtuosity Sometimes our timing is uncanny. Or perhaps it is because we present so many opinions, a few coincidences are likely to happen. Regardless of the reason, a few weeks ago we started focusing on the elusive virtuous cycle. We concluded that the cycle must start with real estate and we indicated that there were signs that this might finally be taking place. Well, a few days ago, this quote appeared in a Wharton publication: Is this the start of the long-awaited and elusive housing recovery -- one that would bring a stronger economy overall? Or is the market just taunting us as it bumps along the bottom? 'It's for real. This is absolutely for real,' says Susan Wachter, professor of real estate at Wharton. The market, she says, is poised to enter a 'virtuous cycle' where positive trends will spur more positive trends. 'This market recovery will continue,' she added.  (See more from article in Real Estate News below.) That is not to say that one person's opinion solidifies the deal. However, it appears that others are taking notice of the rebound that is taking shape. If we want confidence, positive remarks in the media from experts such as Susan Wachter are very important -- certainly more important than our comments. And we certainly do need additional confidence as we build another leg in the virtuous cycle. The employment report released on Friday showed that the recovery is continuing but we could still use more momentum. The drop in the unemployment rate from a high of just under 10% to 7.8% in a period of just under two years is significant. The road to an even lower unemployment rate must be underpinned by a stronger real estate recovery as part of the virtuous cycle. Perhaps it has already begun.   By the less-demanding standards of the past few years, the latest housing figures look pretty good. On September 25, the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a 1.2% price gain in July compared to a year earlier. Prices have risen for three consecutive months. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported on September 26 that sales of existing homes had risen by 9.3% in August, compared to a year earlier, and that the median price of existing homes sold was up 9.5% over the past year. NAR and Case-Shiller use different methodologies. For the 12 months ended in July, sales of newly constructed homes were up about 25%, though the total was still only about half of the 700,000 units considered healthy. Experts are especially impressed that prices of the least-expensive third of homes lead the gains, going up a full 1% between June and July. Those homes had received the worst drubbing in the recent housing market collapse. Is this the start of the long-awaited and elusive housing recovery -- one that would bring a stronger economy overall? Or is the market just taunting us as it bumps along the bottom? 'It's for real. This is absolutely for real,' says Susan Wachter, professor of real estate at Wharton. The market, she says, is poised to enter a 'virtuous cycle' where positive trends will spur more positive trends. 'This market recovery will continue,' she says, predicting that rising prices will prod potential buyers to buy before prices go up more. That demand will nudge prices up, drawing in even more buyers. 'I have been optimistic about this market for six months or a year,' she adds. Several factors have combined to strengthen the market, Wachter says. Extraordinarily low rates have allowed millions of homeowners to reduce their monthly payments by refinancing. Moreover, Wachter notes, unemployment, while still high at over 8%, is not rising, and fewer workers feel the threat of layoffs. The stock market has been very strong, making those with investments feel wealthier. Worries about a shadow supply are easing. 'People are less likely to walk away when they see prices rising,' she says. Source: Knowledge at Wharton More than 20 million rental households spent more than 30 percent of their income last year on rents. In fact, more than half of those renters spent at least half their income on housing, “severely burdening” their finances, according to Census data. Rents have been on the rise the last few years as demand surges. In the past seven years, median rent payments have soared nearly 20 percent from $728 to $871. Some markets have seen double-digit increases in rent in just the last year, such as in cities like Houston, Seattle, and the San Francisco Bay area where strong job markets are fueling high demand. 'More demand with little new supply means rising rents and shrinking vacancies,' says Jed Kolko, chief economist with the real estate Web site Trulia. Source: USA Today Investors have a new target in real estate: undeveloped land. They're snatching up undeveloped land heavily discounted in bankruptcy proceedings from developers and banks that foreclosed on the builders once they ran out of money for their projects, Reuters reports. The investors then resell the land for up to 20 percent or more returns on their investment. Or, in a buy-and-hold strategy, the investors partner with homebuilders to develop the land. 'We are coming out of the mother of all housing cycles, and residential land is the best way to play the ultimate recovery,' Michael Barr, a Paulson & Co. portfolio manager, told Reuters. 'Land is the highest-returning component of the homebuilding equation.' Investors find the most attractive land to buy is a parcel that already has all the planning permissions in place to start construction. Otherwise, the approval process for building on the land from local and state agencies can be costly and timely. Source: Reuters <

Adding To The Rental Market

Investors would often purchase multiple units in a building, and then resell them before taking ownership, a neat trick during that time.  When the recession hit, many investors found themselves with excess inventory and no buyers to take it, they then turned to the rental market.

Others who purchased found themselves out of work as a result of the recession, and were left with having bought high, and now having to sell low.  The problem with that is that often it means that the seller would have to bring cans TO closing, not a very attractive proposition for most.

Some developments such as 210 Trade Street stopped construction, and others such as 300 South Tryon, and One Charlotte never started construction.  Then there is The VUE, a condo project that has shifted to a rental project.  The result of that is that from the over 400 units per year just 5 years ago, we will see 67 units from the SKYE condos hit the market in 2013.

Developers are finding that funding sources for new construction condo projects is very difficult to get,while multifamily projects do not share the same problems.  Rental rates in general are rising, and developers are taking advantage of that market.

All that is forcing the existing condo market to become the only choice for many looking to buy downtown today. 

Three separate projects are either currently underway,or will be shortly.

First, the Fountains. This development is taking the triangular shaped piece of land on the corner of McDowell and Stonewall Streets across from the Blake Hotel and developing it into over 200 apartments that will have an incredible view of the city skyline.

Second, another 250 unit apartment development at the intersection of Johnson & Wales Way and Fourth Street near the Doubletree Hotel.  Work is underway to realign the roads to allow the project to go forward.

Third, previously mentioned here is the Childress Klein 21 story tower with 250 apartments next to the Catalyst and overlooking Romare Bearden Park.

All exciting, and all happening now.

Why A Walkable City Is Important

Fresh off the highs of the DNC, it is important to find out what people thought of our city.  Chris Matthews of MSNBC has become a great fan, and many of the great newspapers of our country all carried favorable reports of Charlotte.

We, who live here, recognize that a large part of the success of the calm convention was delivered by an influx of police that left some people feeling claustrophobic.  But is also exemplified the case for a walkable friendly city, one that Charlotte has become.

I have often told people the biggest difference between living in the suburbs and living in the city is that in the suburbs, when you are driving down a street, you would beep your horn at a friend in their yard or a passing car you recognized.  In the city, when you are walking down the street, it is much more likely that you will walk over to that friend and talk.

Here is a link to an article by a budding urban planner as to her experience and contrast of city and suburban life.  Go here.  It is a good read.

View From Home Plate

"It's a beautiful day for baseball", as Joe Tait, the former announcer for the Cleveland Indians used to say for every game.  But for today, he would have been correct, it WAS a beautiful day for baseball.

Around 10:15 people started gathering at the corner of MLK Jr Blvd and South Graham Streets though not for a baseball game, but to witness the ground breaking ceremony for the BBT Field.  I was surprised, and excited at the turnout of well over 500 people.  I had an opportunity to talk with Parks Helm for a few minutes.  I couldn't tell if he were wiping the sweat from his brow having walked from his office in One Wells Fargo, or a tear in his eye from finally realizing a dream that was years in the making.

For over 10 years I have been running into Parks at various meetings concerning the relocation of baseball back into the center city.  I have an admiration for someone who has stayed focused for so long on this one project.  Parks is now out of the political limelight, I did not see his name in any publication reporting on the groundbreaking.  That said, if not for Parks and his efforts over the years, yesterday would not have happened.

Ballparks today, beginning with Camden Yards in Baltimore, are being built to be part of the urban fabric of a vibrant downtown.  The list is extensive, Progressive Field in Cleveland, CoMerica Park in Detroit, Minute Maid Park in Houston, etc.  Cellular Field in Chicago, home of the White Sox, ironically the parent team for the Charlotte Knights, was the last ballpark build in the "Donut" tradition, and it is like a fortress, not inviting.

The attached picture is from behind Home Plate and gives your an idea of the view that will greet the people in the stands.  The view is also representative of the Club Seats I have secured behind home plate, perhaps you can join me for a game some day, but the purpose of this story is to illustrate that BBT Field will become an integral part of the downtown scene, you will even be able to see into the park from Mint Street as you walk by.

Then, Suddenly It Was Over

I showed up to welcome my 6:45 am volunteer staff this morning at the Residence Inn and found out that all the shifts today had been cancelled.  I was not surprised, I knew the later shifts were cut, but thought we would be there for the mass exodus.

As I was scooting over to the hotel, it was just getting light, sort of.   There was a fog that hid most of the buildings from view.  Gone were the orange cones funneling traffic, gone were the fences surrounding non-convention buildings, gone were the cops from every corner, the motorcycle cops, the bike cops, etc.  The city was remarkably clean!

The hotel staff greeted me with a sense of relief that I haven't seen since I was draft age and a friend had received a deferment from serving.  Kind of like the battle was over and they had survived. 

The delegation at the Residence Inn was from Colorado.  I have a sister there, and we exchanged stories about Pearl Street Mall, McGuckins Hardware, Phanthom Canyon, etc.  That was fun.

And, now it is all over.

Charlotte will go back to building itself as an important city in the south, the convention certainly helped with that.  Restaurants and residents will return to there daily activities, buses will return to their schedules, life will return to normal.

But it will not be the same normal.  The world has seen that we have a bright, clean, prosperous city.  They will have met some of the 15,000 volunteers who's primary function was to smile and answer or get answers for our guests, a friendly city.  All these little acts will leave an impression. 

Charlotte is one of the fastest growing cities in the country, partly because of the businesses located here, partly because of our geographic location, and partly because we do not have the same degree of infrastructure decay that many northern cities have.  The convention will increase the rate of growth going forward.

Thursday, A Celebration

The buzz in the city all morning touched the speeches last night.  There was a sense of empowerment that is unmistakable.  Delegates left the hotel early for meetings with excitement.

Many were dismayed at the change from the stadium to the arena.  That meant that 65,000 people, myself included, would not hear the President speech live.  A heavy rain hit the city mid afternoon, around 4, but the evening was clear.

The speeches this evening were predictable, but Obama was great.

Tomorrow, everyone leaves.

Wednesday, A Day Of Changes

Everything is routine now.  People know what to expect in terms of delays, and my volunteers can anticipate the questions they get and are ready with helpful answers.

Communications with the Host Committee, the group sponsoring the volunteers is getting better.  Though a few days late, I am getting the information on my volunteers that is helpful. 

The weather remains an iffy distraction with intermitten rain, mostly a light thin type of rain falling for 15 minutes.  It reminds me a lot of the type of rain that falls in Florida. 

The Colorado Delegation has been kind enough to provide us with tickets to get into BankofAmerica Stadium for the Presidents acceptance speech.  Originally I did not think that I would get in, but now I am looking forward to being part of it.  In a strange way it reminds me of my brother Ron.  Back in 1963, he and some of his friends went to Washington DC for the funeral of John F. Kennedy.  I have always remembered that he was there.

Well, that now is changed.  The changing weather has made the outdoor speech too chancy, and a decision had to be made for logistical reasongs to move the speech into Time Warner Cable Arena, effectively reducing the number of people involved from 80,000 to 20,000.

The final note is the speeches given by the Bus Nun, and Bill Clinton has the whole city abuzz.

Tuesday, More Than A Chance of Showers

As Tuesday started, things began to turn into a routine.  People were getting used to all the police in the city and the delays and road closings.  Some thinges changed almost hour by hour.  The Secret Service has been in overall charge of all activities, and one might think that the confusion was planned not to give anyone a heads up as to how to "attack"!

All of my volunteers showed up for the Tuesday shifts.  Most of the day there was little for them to do other than talk to eachother.  The Colorado Delegates were in meetings mosts of the day, and then were getting ready for the opening ceremonies of the convention.

The protestors were active, but not totally disruptive, really a reflection to the incredible amount of security present. 

The tremendous increase in activity in and around downtown is a portent of things to come as Charlotte continues to grow as a city.  Traffic in the central core of the city will get more constrictive, forcing many to choose public transportation as opposed to fighting the crowds and high prices for parking.  There is little doubt that the city will end up this way.

Monday, A Day Of Celebration

Monday morning started early for me as I welcomed my volunteers at the Residence Inn by the BankofAmerica Stadium at 6:45 am.  I am not sure what surprise me more, that I was awake, or that anyone showed up! 

The volunteer presence consists of 4 people each shift, and there are 3 shifts per day.  The volunteers are generally over 50, and delighted to be part of the convention in any way they can.  Truly a feeling of patriotism.  As I explain their jobs to them, to a person they are concerned that they do a good job.  Upon leaving, I give them my card, and encourage them to think for themselves, but not to hesitate to call me for any issue.  I live close and can be there quickly.

Our marching orders are to smile and to respond to questions or issues from a delegate with "I will take care of that for you.".  There are a host of resources for us to use.

The day was built around "Carolina Fest" which was open to the public.  It consumed most of Tryon Street and was well attended.  There is also a large tented area with an exhibit called "The Presidential Experience" which contains a replica of Air Force One, the Oval Office, presidential cars, personal items from 12 presidents, etc.  Downtown was abuzz with people yesterday. 

James Taylor was holding a concert at the intersection of Trade and Tryon that was cut short by a cloudburst, a lingering effect of Hurricane Isaac.   Drenched, I retired to a friends and whipped up a bolognese sauce and had a great pasta dinner.

Sunday A Day Of Police Presence

Getting up on Sunday morning was a bit of a challenge after working until midnight at the NCMF for the opening media party.  It started early as well, 6:45 am.  As Captain of the Residence Inn, I felt the need to show up to welcome the volunteers who agreed to sit at the Host Committee table and answer questions for the guests.

I found out late Saturday Night that I was also scheduled to be a volunteer myself at The Dunhill Hotel, and was scheduled to be there at 6:45 as well!

Yikes!  Fortunately, it was light at both locations, and I was able to accomplish that.

I had a brunch with a friend, and she commented to me how eerie it felt to have the police presence that is everywhere in the city.  I don't know the numbers but there are cops here from DC, Richmond, Chicago, and other nearby locales as well. I have seen stranger Police vehicles than ever.  I have seen cops swarming on bikes in packs of 12, Motorized dirt bikes in packs of 12, and the big escort motorcycles with their red-white-blue strobes.  There are swat teams present, there are other cops on foot in Keflar.  Quite a site.

My night job was to unload and load delegates as they came into the city for parties at the museums.  The process was not as organized as I would have liked, but we accomplished our duties.

It is a fun time to be in Charlotte.