Monday, December 13, 2010

Have We Passed The Bottom Of The Market?

Statistics are wonderful, they can be used to justify just about anything.  Take this graph for instance.  I have calculated the percentage of annual sales during the last third of each year for 2007 through December 12 2010.  This gives us a look back at the high times of 2007  before the recession took it's toll.

As one would imagine, 2008 was a weak year, and only 15% of the annual sales happened during the last third of the year.  In 2009, the year of the first time home buyer tax credit sales spiked to over 50% for that last third.  The real interesting thing to note is that while 2010 is not yet over, and the first half of this year we had the extension of the tax credit, we have exceeded the number achieved in 2007!

To be sure, we still have a way to go, but when you are trying to find your way you look for signs, and this is a clear sign that the bottom has been hit.

One last thing to support this theory, interest rates are beginning to climb.

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